Opinion polls for the Bavaria state election
As of , the newest poll for the Bavaria state election, from Civey, puts CSU at 38.0%, AfD at 20.0% and Grüne at 13.0%. This page lists 39 polls published after the election of , each with its pollster and fieldwork dates.
- Germany
- Bayerischer Landtag
- 39 polls since the last election
- Last election
- Next: Germany 2028 Bavaria state election
Newest poll
The newest poll, from Civey, published 12 September 2026; asked 27 August 2026 to 10 September 2026.
| Party | % | ± points against a month earlier | ± points against the federal average |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 38.0 | +1.0 | +17.2 |
| AfD | 20.0 | +1.0 | −7.8 |
| Grüne | 13.0 | −1.0 | −1.6 |
| Freie Wähler | 12.0 | 0.0 | |
| SPD | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.7 |
| Linke | 3.0 | 0.0 | −8.6 |
| BSW | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FDP | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 |
| Other parties | 3.0 | −1.0 |
CSU is compared with the federal average of CDU/CSU.
What stands out
- CSU: 17.2 points above CDU/CSU's federal average of 12 September 2026 (20.8%).
- Linke: 8.6 points below the federal average of 12 September 2026 (11.6%).
- AfD: 7.8 points below the federal average of 12 September 2026 (27.8%).
Trend
Every poll since the 2023 election
| Pollster | Published | Asked | People | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | BSW | Other parties | In average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Yes | |
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 39.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,003 | 39.0 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor Bayerischer Rundfunk, Telefon & Online | to | 1,177 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,006 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 37.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| GMSfor CSU, Telefon & Online | to | 1,005 | 40.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,017 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Forsafor Süddeutsche Zeitung, Telefonisch | to | 1,012 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 41.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,002 | 37.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 39.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,004 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,006 | 39.0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,006 | 41.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,007 | 41.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,011 | 43.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognosefor Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Online | to | 1,000 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 12.5 | ||||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 42.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,008 | 44.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 43.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,048 | 42.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Forsafor Süddeutsche Zeitung, Telefonisch | to | 1,036 | 43.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefonisch | to | 1,023 | 41.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,018 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor Bayerischer Rundfunk, Telefon & Online | to | 1,161 | 40.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | ||||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,002 | 41.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | |||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 40.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
Pollsters
| Pollster | Polls | Latest | In the average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 25 | Yes | |
| GMS | 8 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 2 | ||
| Forsa | 2 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 | ||
| INSA | 1 |
Other state parliaments
How this page is made
The average takes the newest poll of each pollster published in the 30 days up to the date of the newest poll, counting only polls published after the last election. Each party's figure is the mean of its shares in the polls that report it, rounded to one decimal, and a party is listed when at least half of those polls report it. Every poll is used as DAWUM publishes it; no poll is weighted or adjusted. A poll is a snapshot of what a sample said when asked, not a forecast, and this page shows no seat projection. If DAWUM edits or withdraws a poll, this page follows.
No law in Germany stops the publication of opinion polls before an election. Only exit polls, which ask people who have already voted, may not be published before the polling stations close at 18:00 (Berlin time). Bundeswahlgesetz, section 32, read .
Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL)). The database as DAWUM publishes it.
Sources and licence
Sources and licence
- Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL)) (source). Licence: Open Database License 1.0
- Wikidata, party colours (P465) (source). Licence: CC0 1.0 Universal
Our text and compilation: CC BY 4.0. How to reuse and cite this page.